If the New York Mets (87-71,41-36 away) get their way, this will be the last game of their season. It'll also set up a potential rematch with the Milwaukee Brewers (92-68,46-33 home) in the postseason. However, Sunday's 3:10 p.m. EST battle probably won't end New York's regular season. As for the Brew Crew, they're locked into the NL's third seed and will likely rest up for Tuesday. Regardless of what happens Sunday, American Family Field is the site for this game and an NL wild-card series. Let's see who gets the last laugh before October raises the stakes.
(Published before Saturday's game)
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New York Facing Dilemmas
The Mets are in a virtual three-way tie for the final two NL wild-card spots. A doubleheader looms on Monday unless Arizona is eliminated before then. Making the playoffs isn't a guarantee for this team, although winning out would make it one. For the Mets, a lineup that's seventh in runs per game (4.78) is the key to victory on Sunday. New York is 11th in batting average, eighth in OBP, and ninth in slugging percentage. They're a top-10 team in home runs (6th), walk percentage (7th), and stolen-base percentage (8th). This year's Mets are 17th in stolen bases and 15th in strikeout rate. They've hit well on the road all season long. Can they do it when it matters most?
A strong second half from the pitching staff has been key to New York's postseason hopes. Thanks to the schedule, their pitching plan for Sunday afternoon is in limbo. Luis Severino, Tylor Megill, and Jose Quintana are all available options. Unfortunately, using all three between Sunday and Monday's games would leave the Mets without a properly rested starter on Tuesday, their first playoff game. Either Sunday or during the doubleheader, New York is likely to use a bullpen game. The team's relievers are ranked 17th in ERA, 14th in FIP, and 14th in WAR. If they're Sunday's solution, the bullpen must navigate a daunting lineup.
Key Injuries - Jeff McNeil (out)
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Milwaukee Locked In
Milwaukee isn't moving from their playoff seed, so Sunday is probably a punt day. Don't expect any major players in that lineup. Still, it's worth noting that the Brewers score the sixth-most runs per game, 4.80. They're second in walk rate, second in stolen bases, and third in stolen-base percentage. The Brewers left Friday's 8-4 win seventh in batting average, fourth in OBP, and 12th in slugging percentage. They rank 15th in homers and 18th in strikeout rate. Who will be in the lineup and what will they do on Sunday afternoon?
Knowing that they need all hands on deck this Tuesday, Milwaukee's pitching plan for this game is also undecided. The Brewers aren't using a normal starter so they have their best options available during the week. It wouldn't be shocking if the club promoted a pitcher for this matchup. A bullpen that's second in ERA, ninth in FIP, and sixth in WAR probably won't use their key relievers either. Expect guys fighting for a playoff spot or minor-leaguers to touch the mound in this game. Let's see if Milwaukee's arms are enough to challenge a desperate Mets team.
Key Injuries - Christian Yelich (out)
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Best Bets for New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers
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What do the Brewers have to play for? Sunday's game for them will be about staying loose, trying new things, and resting important players before their postseason begins. Meanwhile, the Mets have everything at stake, including the slim probability of getting into October without another Atlanta trip on Monday.
Both offenses are potent, but the Mets will have their best lineup penciled in, whereas Milwaukee won't. New York will use every important pitcher available, whereas the Brewers shouldn't. The Mets need this and the Brewers just want to be at full strength come Tuesday. It'll benefit the Mets in a needed multi-run victory.
Prediction: New York Mets -1.5
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In one dugout is a Mets team that ranks seventh in scoring. In the other resides a Brew Crew that's sixth in runs per game. These are two offenses capable of lighting up any pitcher.
That the Brewers won't use any of their postseason options for most of this game bodes well for New York's offense to explode. Milwaukee averages 5.50 runs per game against the Mets this year, so they are comfortable facing their pitchers. Take the over in this one.
Prediction: Over
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Andre Ifill , "The Tower"
Watching, playing, and talking about sports has always been an essential part of my life. I graduated from the University of Connecticut with a degree in Communication, and now, I'm striving to be an essential voice in sports media for decades to come. You'd be hard-pressed to find someone more competitive than me, and that extends into my sports betting predictions as well. We're all here to win, and my goal is to make that happen every single night while letting my personality shine in the process. I am honored to be apart of this team.
